36% and Falling: What Trump’s Approval Rating Says About the Next Two Years

The energy in the hall at last week’s Conservative Political Action Conference near Dallas was easy to read: flags, chants, and the recognizable rhythm of political certainty. However, discussions among attendees in the parking lots outside exposed a more nuanced situation. Rising gas prices were being defended. describing the benefits of paying $4 per gallon. discussing long-term strategy and nuclear threats. They had good reason to consider those ideas. However, the fact that regular Republicans felt obliged to practice those arguments revealed something about the political climate that the cacophony of the conference hall was unable to fully obscure.
In the late March Reuters/Ipsos poll, Donald Trump’s approval rating dropped to 36%, the lowest of his two terms as president. It’s worth taking a moment to consider that figure, not because it’s disastrous on its own, but rather because of its origins and speed. Depending on the survey, Trump’s approval ranged from 47 to 52 percent at his January 2025 inauguration. It had already fallen to 42% when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28. It has lost six more points in the weeks that have passed. Although polls are not perfect tools, it is difficult to disagree with their direction.

The damage is concentrated in the economy, which is crucial considering Trump’s campaign. The foundation of his 2024 campaign was a single, straightforward message: Biden’s prices were too high, and he would lower them. After hearing and believing that message, voters gave him a second term. Now, only 29% of Americans approve of his economic stewardship, despite the fact that the national average price of gasoline is almost $4 per gallon, up about $1 since the start of the war. In addition to being the lowest economic approval rating of either of his terms in office, it is also, and perhaps most importantly, lower than Joe Biden’s record during the inflation boom that characterized his presidency. Trump attacked Biden’s inflation figures for years. By this measure, at least, he now has a worse one.

The specific weight of the cost-of-living figure is difficult to ignore. One in four Americans, or just 25% of the population, think that Trump is managing the cost of living. That was the problem with the kitchen table. The credit card bills, the gas pump receipts, the trips to the grocery store. In 2024, Republicans effectively personalized economic suffering. Americans who are driving less, spending less, and beginning to feel truly squeezed are now filling out the same emotional ledger. The economy is “somewhat weak” or “very weak,” according to 63% of respondents in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, including 40% of Republicans. This number should cause the White House more concern than nearly anything else in the data.
Most of his base is still intact. In the tribal math of contemporary American politics, one in five Republicans disapprove of his overall performance, which is an exceptionally low defection rate. The loudest voices at CPAC continued to support the project, arguing that the Iran war was a necessary expense and believing that Trump’s ability to make deals would eventually lead to an exit. According to a Quinnipiac poll, 86% of Republicans are in favor of the military action. There is still sincere conviction within that specific universe. However, national approval and Republican fervor are two very different things, and it is precisely this difference that determines the outcome of the midterm elections.
The story of independent voters is more illuminating. They were crucial to Trump’s victory in 2024 because they supported him on the basis of economic worries and doubts about the ability of Democrats. That same group is now retreating. Trump’s net approval is -18 according to The Economist’s tracker, which uses YouGov data. Voters 65 and older, who have historically been among the most reliable Republican constituencies, are particularly dissatisfied. Voters in their pension years who see rising grocery and gas prices while their savings yield erratic returns in erratic bond markets do not form an ideological bloc. They are pragmatic individuals, and pragmatic individuals eventually recognize when something isn’t functioning.
Seven months remain until the midterm elections, and a lot could happen. A ceasefire, a diplomatic framework, or even a credible off-ramp could resolve the Iranian conflict, lowering oil prices and reducing economic anxiety. Although Iranian officials have consistently refuted Trump’s suggestions that the war might end soon, analysts estimate that the likelihood of a resolution by late spring is only about 25%. Republican campaign offices across the nation should take note of Capital Alpha Partners’ 35 percent odds that the conflict will last until 2027. Additionally, the historical trend is not encouraging: presidents who have less than 40% of the vote before the midterms typically suffer significant losses. Although it’s still unclear if Trump has the political leeway to change this before November, the party’s current polling trajectory is not going in the right direction.