That kind of number usually prompts me to hit the warning button. The story might be as good as it seems, but it’s also possible that the quick wins are already behind us.

The peculiar thing about this rally is that HSBC is not an anomaly. All of the major players on the FTSE 100 banking bench have been steadily rising. When you stroll past the Canary Wharf tower on a weekday morning, the atmosphere seems strangely normal.

Employees are holding flat whites, the Jubilee line is overflowing with the typical crowds, and there is absolutely no indication that the company they stream into has just completed one of its best multi-year runs in recent memory. Perhaps this is how these objects always appear from the outside.

A portion of the explanation is both significant and dull. After finally cleaning up after the 2008 financial crisis, British banks were given a real boost by rising interest rates. As a result, net interest margins—the difference between what the bank charges borrowers and what it pays savers—widened, and regular lending once again became a remarkably profitable enterprise. Reinvention was not necessary. Patience was needed.

HSBC has adopted a strategy that is difficult for domestic lenders to imitate. Its strength lies in Asia, especially China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. It recently established its first wealth center in the Middle East, in the United Arab Emirates. That is important. A Hong Kong real estate transaction or a wealthy client in Dubai can still have an impact when British consumers reduce their borrowing. Investors appear to have finally realized that it has a more diversified earnings base than a high-street bank could ever manage.

With pre-tax profits of $32.3 billion, up 6.6% from the year before, the figures for 2024 were truly impressive. Then, in 2025, it fell to $29.9 billion, which may seem concerning until you look at the footnotes. Restructuring expenses, legal requirements, and impairments are examples of one-offs that don’t really reveal much about the underlying engine.

Even so, the board increased the dividend for the entire year by 13.6%, and in the five years since the pandemic, shareholder payouts have increased at a compound annual growth rate of about 38%. You have to read the line twice because of that kind of figure.

Although they were put on hold for nine months while the bank spent £13.6 billion to fully take over Hang Seng Bank, buybacks have also been substantial, totaling $6 billion last year. There’s a subtle tension there. The buybacks were well received by shareholders, and it is hoped that the taps will open again after the Hang Seng deal closes. When that window reopens, it’s still unclear if management will act swiftly or cautiously.

Since assuming the top position in 2024, Georges Elhedery has been gradually streamlining the organization, pulling out of weaker markets, and delving further into wealth management. The goal is a payout ratio of about 50% of earnings and a measurable return on equity of 17%. Currently at 4.4%, the trailing yield is expected to rise to 4.48% this year and 5.28% by 2027.

Fireworks are not promised by those numbers. They make a better promise: consistency. Additionally, it seems premature to declare HSBC’s gradual transformation from a sprawling conglomerate into something leaner.

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